The Economic Impact of the Russian-Ukraine War made analysts question the stability of belt and road initiatives. But there is something that China gets from the disorder. The war has brought Russia to the negotiation table. And now Beijing wants to move forward with infrastructure projects in Central and Western Asia, which is delayed due to the doubt of the Kremlin.
China BRI has a new focus area – Eurasia. And Mongolia holds the key.
Construction work on ‘Siberian strength 2’ or Altai gas pipeline project connecting Siberian oil fields with China through Mongolia, starting in 2024, Prime Minister Mongolia Oyun-Ferdene Luvsannamsrai told the Financial Times on Monday. With European criticism of its member countries that rely on Moscow’s energy supply, this gas pipeline project has become important for Russia’s state-owned Gazprom. Head of company Alexei Miller said China would be the main customer of Russian oil and gas in the future.
Chinese experts and social media users are broadly discussing the statement of PM Mongolia about pipes. After the interview, the hashtag “The China-Russian natural gas pipeline project to start construction in 2024” began to trend in Weibo.
Outside Mongolia
Mongolia found that he was trapped between Russia and China and might face difficulties in making payments at bonds worth $ 1.3 billion which were scheduled to be mature in 2023, and the other $ 600 million matured in 2024.
Although Russia and China have signed an energy agreement of $ 117.5 billion in February – right before Vladimir Putin launched his attack on Kyiv – The impact of the Ukraine war had given a new belief to encourage his plans.
Chinese experts have proposed ways to reduce the challenges caused by the Ukraine War. In most regions in the world, the BRI project has struggled because of the pandemic and war. “If the battlefield situation is extended, the Belt and Road initiative needs to be adjusted,” said Huang Renwei, Deputy Executive Dean of Belt and Road and Global Governance Institute, Fudan University.
Eurasia China’s dream
Zhang Weiwei, a celebrity professor who has a Top Chinese leadership ears, wants to promote connectivity throughout the mainland of Eurasia to provide a balance of power.
Today Eurasia holds 75 percent of the world’s population, 60 percent of global GDP, and 75 percent of known energy. ‘Great Partnership of Eurasia’ BRI and Russia in China can radiate the entire Eurasian continent … I think it is a consensus of most countries on the Eurasian plate to promote cooperation between China and Russia in all aspects, to promote cooperation between various countries in Eurasia’s plates in Eurasia in Eurasia and the exchange of civilization, and to reach a win-win cooperation, “Zhang said during the broadcast of” This Is China “by Dragon TV.
The project in Mongolia is not the only one driven by China. After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) train will begin in 2023. Although the proposed railroad will not pass through Russia’s territory, these countries have become Russian traditional backyard. And that’s where China is now trying to find an alternative part for its supply chain. CKU will act as part of Europe through Iran and Turkey, with a total length of 523 kilometers.
The new CKU railroad project will revive the potential of the ‘middle corridor’ to Europe, which was previously considered expensive compared to land routes through Russia. Another component of the ‘middle corridor’ is the standard train-military-KARS (BTK), which is another route that will be very dependent on Chinese suppliers to send their cargo to Europe.
Moving cargo through Russia’s territory is one of China’s large axis under BRI, but the war in Ukraine has made Beijing think about alternative routes to Europe. Chinese suppliers, however, Waspada sends cargo through Russian territory because of sanctions imposed on Kremlin.
Alternative to Russian territory
If Russia’s dependence on China increases, Beijing can quickly launch its geostrategic plan in Eurasia – Overspepping Sphere Kremlin.
“In this case, we Chinese people promote the development of Western regions and the national economic circulation. We not only have a continental channel that connects all Eurasia, but also the coastline of 18,000 kilometers of land, “said Professor Weiwei.
Chinese experts have proposed collaboration between Russia and China in the Eurasian region as an equal partnership. But the war in Ukraine has left Russia without other options besides giving a nod to the projects that China wants to apply. Kremlin has no influence on Beijing, which will shrink the scope of Russia’s influence in his backyard.
The author is a columnist and freelance journalists, currently pursuing MSC titles in international politics with a focus on China from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a Chinese media journalist at BBC World Service. He’s tweet @aadilbrar. Personal views.